NDX down 82% peak to trough, XLF down 77% peak of 38 in 05/2007, and trough to date on 11/21/08. Looks like financials bubble just as powerful as TMT. Unfortunately much more pervasive and interwoven with macro.SPX down 47% peak to trough 2000-2002, SPX down 49% peak to trough to date. Multiples were 2X as high entering last correction, so there is leeway fro even more significant earnings cuts. Based on long term average of 14-15X, looks like $60 for SPX is being build it. That seems reasonable.If credit markets normalize, and massive fiscal stimulus comes through paired with continued monetary creativity, we could be approaching a bottom.. though recovery will likely be slow and painful for broader economy.What do you think?
Still scanning for fresh ideas.
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