XL - shot through the heart

XL is at $7.20. Goddamn, should have have stuck to my guns instead of wimping out at $5.50. This market is crazy, I guess when you see a 60% gain in a few weeks, you are not thinking, just wait a few more and it will be 100%. The velocity just spooked me, I admit it, even though my analysis supported the higher valuation. Plus I think having time on my hands leads to churn, plus I am scared of losing money given my unemployed status.
WFC - well NIM surged, this should be good for all deposit franchises and credit losses lower than expected. WFC had the WB merger so that is hard to project vs. others. Back in July the WFC announcement and dividend raise (an act of bravado, which they had to walk back with a massive dividend cut) sparked the bank rally. Now, we have had a huge rally, is the WFC pre-announcement the end of the rally?. Is it possible that expectations fully capture the losses that are coming in CRE and C&I, or that NIM expansion will counter these losses? A lot of these banks are trading above tangible book now signifying a waning of market capital concerns. Hard to imagine that credit has crested, but time is on the banks side, given that current loan margins are fantastic. Boy we really are setting ourselves up for trouble if this quarter is not the bottom from a macro standpoint. Even so negative GDP growth even if less negative is still going to stoke credit losses. So unless Q3 GDP is positive this is too early to be off to the races. In short I will continue to take profits, and expect a pullback. The alternative is wrapping myself into a pretzel as I try to game expectations.