Action

Am planning on closing out my SKF and SDS position today. SKF was hedging my JPM, and has offset the decline in that stock. My sense is that JPM will rally into or post earnings. I will keep the proceeds as cash, so slightly less bearish but not bullish. Made 12% on the SDS, and if I think the banks will rally into earnings, hard to see SPY going down. Will keep those proceeds in cash, so a little less defensive, but am quite comfortable with my holdings. Need some individual shorts though.
By the way ACE better rally stock has been disappointing recently and it should really move to BVPS which is going to be around $48. AOCI will be a plus but also op earnings will be strong due to limited CAT losses this quarter. That would be nice as it is my largest position. Glad I took more than half of my RIG position off at $82, as the stock is way back down. BP went up and down thought the dividend yield there makes it a keeper so not touching that. SBUX has been languishing, which one could say about the whole market. I probably need to write calls again. The problem is that transaction costs are a big problem given that my position sizes are not so large for the covered calls.

RIG

I know, I know, well I sold the RIG that i had added at $72 at around $76, and rolled a portion into CPX. As RIG is down more than CPX and my cash position went up, kind of a winner. Anyways, was a mistake to jump back into RIG, but made some money on the trade and am now back to my more defensive posture. APOL and ACE continue to outperform on the downside and with my SKF and SDS and Cash, I am quite comfortable when the market tanks.
Am still doing work on CPX, it is a small position that I will hopefully build as cyclical conditions improve. Valuation is favorable, though there is need for signs of a cyclical recovery for the stock to move. On that front, it looks like RIG count is bottoming but natural gas storage is stubbornly high above the 5 year average, so if anything I am likely to be early.
Still hunting for shorts - it is hard honestly as mean reversion favors longs. I will say MI is still trending down at $4.65, what an opportunity that was. At this point based on my numbers, it would be a buy. That being said it is option like vs. equity given its frolicking with insolvency...