Thursday, July 2, 2009

RIG

I know, I know, well I sold the RIG that i had added at $72 at around $76, and rolled a portion into CPX. As RIG is down more than CPX and my cash position went up, kind of a winner. Anyways, was a mistake to jump back into RIG, but made some money on the trade and am now back to my more defensive posture. APOL and ACE continue to outperform on the downside and with my SKF and SDS and Cash, I am quite comfortable when the market tanks.
Am still doing work on CPX, it is a small position that I will hopefully build as cyclical conditions improve. Valuation is favorable, though there is need for signs of a cyclical recovery for the stock to move. On that front, it looks like RIG count is bottoming but natural gas storage is stubbornly high above the 5 year average, so if anything I am likely to be early.
Still hunting for shorts - it is hard honestly as mean reversion favors longs. I will say MI is still trending down at $4.65, what an opportunity that was. At this point based on my numbers, it would be a buy. That being said it is option like vs. equity given its frolicking with insolvency...

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