Thursday, October 30, 2008

Investing in financials

Clearly the financials landscape still has many pitfalls, just look at HIG today. Have not heard the earnings call, but clearly concerns must center around either further significant dilutive capital raises and/or liquidity/ratings agency actions. Down 33% wow!.
So, my focus at present is not to be a hero and avoid the riskier names. Clearly if you bought a basket of those some will have stupendous upside, but it does seem casino like at present.
With that said, one still either has to take some balance sheet risk with most likely relatively stable earnings (ACE, CB, TRV), or avoid balance sheet risk but accept greater EPS volatility (TROW,BEN, MA). A group that I believe has neither balance sheet nor much EPS volatility are the insurance brokers (AOC, MMC). Both also have cost cutting opportunities and will be beneficiaries if insurance rates stop declining. Of course, valuation is not super cheap. I will be doing more work on those names.
Another stock that i like is IAP.LN, the largest interdealer broker. Clearly the OTC market is in disrepute and there is no visibility at all at present, but this is one to watch as well. As an aside Deutsche Borse has had a huge rally from way low numbers. I wonder if this is due to the VW action. That stock is also interesting.
I would like to start thinking of banks at some stage, but the regulatory and capital uncertainty is so high that picking winners at present seems quite foolhardy.
I had GPN as a short vs. MA (MA very solid franchise, with too much priced in, and GPN only gts paid when MA gets paid
Of course, my resources are limited, access to street and management curtailed, and I have to search for a job, so this blog could end up being overly ambitious.

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