Action

Am planning on closing out my SKF and SDS position today. SKF was hedging my JPM, and has offset the decline in that stock. My sense is that JPM will rally into or post earnings. I will keep the proceeds as cash, so slightly less bearish but not bullish. Made 12% on the SDS, and if I think the banks will rally into earnings, hard to see SPY going down. Will keep those proceeds in cash, so a little less defensive, but am quite comfortable with my holdings. Need some individual shorts though.
By the way ACE better rally stock has been disappointing recently and it should really move to BVPS which is going to be around $48. AOCI will be a plus but also op earnings will be strong due to limited CAT losses this quarter. That would be nice as it is my largest position. Glad I took more than half of my RIG position off at $82, as the stock is way back down. BP went up and down thought the dividend yield there makes it a keeper so not touching that. SBUX has been languishing, which one could say about the whole market. I probably need to write calls again. The problem is that transaction costs are a big problem given that my position sizes are not so large for the covered calls.

RIG

I know, I know, well I sold the RIG that i had added at $72 at around $76, and rolled a portion into CPX. As RIG is down more than CPX and my cash position went up, kind of a winner. Anyways, was a mistake to jump back into RIG, but made some money on the trade and am now back to my more defensive posture. APOL and ACE continue to outperform on the downside and with my SKF and SDS and Cash, I am quite comfortable when the market tanks.
Am still doing work on CPX, it is a small position that I will hopefully build as cyclical conditions improve. Valuation is favorable, though there is need for signs of a cyclical recovery for the stock to move. On that front, it looks like RIG count is bottoming but natural gas storage is stubbornly high above the 5 year average, so if anything I am likely to be early.
Still hunting for shorts - it is hard honestly as mean reversion favors longs. I will say MI is still trending down at $4.65, what an opportunity that was. At this point based on my numbers, it would be a buy. That being said it is option like vs. equity given its frolicking with insolvency...

Update

Well, my streak of selling too soon continues with SLM. Now over $10! Aaagh, oh well can't be greedy, but definitely something to pay attention to, as in SLM and XL, I had great timing, valuation support, but chickened out after 50% return. Great numbers, but in this situation, patience and perseverance would have been rewarded. XL over $11 is painful.
Good news, bought back RIG at $72, sold at $83, now back to $76. Wonder how that will work as frankly this is not based on hard analysis. NOW with APOL, I did the grunt work, and that one crushed it today in earnings and is at $72, not bad at all for a pretty low risk stock, at least on economics (risk is regulatory). Bought at $58, so 22% not bad with market basically flat in interim. Now if only ACE could move, it is stuck in the mid forties, I think earnings will be a catalyst as BVPS growth will be apparent. JPM is flat for me as well, though apparently I-bank will be strong. SKF has been painful but still downside support, and am flat on the SDS, also downside hedge. Am about 20% cash as well.

Moves

Sold SLM today 47% gain not bad, probably will go up, there is additional value but I am getting ancy on this market, and have not been following the stock too closely. I also cut in half my RIG position yesterday taking a 30% gain, since it just seems that oil is ahead of itself. That being said still have my BP and it is kind of my inflation hedge. I also sold BECN a legacy position that I basically broke even on over the past 2.5 yrs. At one point I had a 50% gain, and at one point a 50% loss! Also have not been following the stock so out it goes. So have raised a bit of cash. Am thinking of buying a little bit of SDS which is the ultrashort on the S&P to go with my SKF as I look to play defense. It is either that or raise more cash. Not sure.
I do have ACE and APOL which are pretty defensive as well so overall my portfolio is quite defensively oriented. If the market surges from here i will miss out, but on the other hand if it declines will definitely outperform, which as i don't have a job, is much more important given my job prospects are correlated with the market.
Was looking at MI as a possible long, speculative but it needs to come down more and complete its ATM capital raise.

PS: I just bought some SDS, small position between that and the SKF it is about 6% of my portfolio so some downside protection, cash I am at about 30% and the rest is long individual names: ACE, APOL, SBUX,JPM, BP and RIG now that SLM and BECN are gone

KRE

KRE puts nicely in the money, have begun to cover as I think this justified pullback has largely run its course. Most of the junk that rallied in the short squeeze, MI, SNV, RF etc... have come back 30-35%. if broader market continues to decline well I will be wrong but the easy call is done, i believe

COF

Out of COF today, 45% in 2 days not bad. Must be short squeeze. But hey needed that, why not eh....
My stalwart ACE has been underperforming by a ton, back to BVPS but it will come back

moves

Trimmed my SKF position, as it was basically hurting too much and bought some COF yesterday. COF was up 15% yesterday and looks to open up 20% today. Should take the sting away form my SKF losses.
market has shifted from a focus on P/TB to normalized P/E. Makes sense as going from who survives to who thrives? That being said any delay in recovery or any shock and you will get a big downdraft.
Anyways have opted to position my brokerage account more conservatively as I may need that money someday if I don't get a job, and I'm letting it RIP in my IRA.
In all honesty, I left so much money on the table. Bought XL at $3.60 sold at $5.50 now over $10. Bough COF at $11 sold at $14, back in at $22, now at $26. Bought UYG at $2-$2.40, sold at $3.50, now $4.20. I think I saw the valuation opportunity in Feb-March, but I remained too risk averse. Made very good money, but could have made an absolute, once in a blue moon, killing. Very frustrating, an important lesson that I learn AGAIN.